Friday night I got worked (-$50). The reason I put so much money on the line was because I had never been so confident in any lineup. To refresh your Friday memory, The entire T-wolves starters were out, as well as many Bulls players. I decided to heavily stack backups for both teams. This meant including players like Shabazz Muhammad, Anthony Bennett, Aaron Books, Zach Lavine and Andrew Wiggins. The logic goes; if these backup players get big minutes then they will perform at a very low salary. Well I woke up to find that the majority of them underperformed.
So what happened? A post from this Rotogrinders thread might explain it…
Both Chicago and Minnesota were playing without many of their best players. This meant that their offense could not run the way it was designed to. This of course led to a blowout. From now on I want to avoid these unknown players in my cash game lineups. Their volatility makes for good GPP plays but I would rather go with a proven veteran who gets minutes do to one injury, not a bunch of rookies who have to replace a whole starting lineup. I have noticed good results when I have done this in the past. For example, Mario Chalmers when Wade got injured, or Ramon Sessions when Collison was out. Give me Channing Frye over Anthony Bennett any day!
I ended up implementing this strategy for yesterday’s game (Mo Williams instead of Zach Lavine, and Corey Brewer instead of Andrew Wiggins) and it paid off. I went 10 for 10 (+$20), boy this game has its ups and downs!