Variance in Daily Fantasy Sports

Variance in Daily Fantasy Sports

I played more games yesterday with more lineups than I had ever before.  I got lucky in certain spots and really unlucky in others but I still ended up making $.20 for the day.  These results are reassuring because if I run bad and still break even, we are doing something right.   Every day I learn about a cool new tool I can put in my “batman utility belt” that will help me on my journey to professional fantasy sports player.

Before I review my day I wanted to share with you this cool free tool on  It allows you to review how certain players played from the previous day.  You can compare your busts to other players with similar salaries and maybe see why they out performed you so you will be better equipped to choose this type of player in the future.

Variance happens in life every day.  Sometimes you run good and get lucky, other times you run bad and get unlucky.  We can lower our variance by always trying to make the best decision possible with the information available.  For example, you can die crossing the street.  But you can lower your risk by crossing a residential suburb street in the middle of the afternoon versus darting across a freeway at midnight.  I know it is an extreme example but  you get point.

Variance in Fantasy Sports,  Fanduel, NBA, Fantasy Basketball, JJ Redick, Kelly Olynyk











The two players that I played most throughout all of my rosters were JJ Redick and Kelly Olynyk.  Before you make the white player jokes let me explain my reasoning.  Both players severely underperformed.  Even though JJ is a starter I wouldn’t normally play him because he splits his minutes with Jamal Crawford.  Yesterday before tip-off there were multiple sources saying Jamal was not going to play.  Vegas predicted a fast paced game and at $4700 I saw a lot of value in Redick.  I put him in every single one of my lineups.  Jamal ended up playing, and playing well at that.  Redick continued his early season struggles and gave me a measly  11.6 points.  I am still happy with my desciion, I just wish I Doc would have notified me Jamal would play.

Onto my 2nd white boy, Kelly Olynyk.  Boston/Dallas was the fastest pace game of the night.  What I didn’t know was that through the first 3 games of the season Olynyk was averaging 5 fouls a game.  He ended up getting into early foul trouble and never finding his rhythm.  A player getting in early foul trouble is the perfect example of a variance.   Today I am going to learn where I can see what players draw the most fouls and who commits the most fouls, because if you are in foul trouble it means you are not playing.  I’d imagine foul trouble ruins many fantasy rosters.

I’ll be the first to admit I ran well in other spots.  I played a lot of Jeff Green and he delivered with 51.4 points.  A high scoring fast paced game is great for his style of play.   I’ve got the bug, I can’t wait to make tonight’s lineup!


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